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AP Potential

Expectancy Tables

Select a subject below to see the specific PSAT/NMSQT cut scores that are associated with varying probabilities (or thresholds) of success on a given AP exam. The probabilities of success range from 10% to 90% and show the minimum scores associated with earning a 2 or higher or a 3 or higher for each probability level. The higher the probability level, the higher the PSAT/NMSQT score needed, and the more likely that the selected students will earn a 2 or higher or a 3 or higher.

Subject:

AP Art History

Evidence-Based Reading and Writing Section Score
Probability (%) ≥2 ≥3
90 550 700
80 480 630
70 440 590
60 410 550
50 410 520
40 410 490
30 410 450
20 410 410
10 410 410
Total N = 36,698

AP Biology

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥2 ≥3
90 1020 1220
80 960 1170
70 920 1130
60 880 1100
50 860 1070
40 860 1040
30 860 1010
20 860 970
10 860 910
Total N = 343,360

AP Calculus AB*

Math Section Score
Probability (%) ≥2 ≥3
90 620 700
80 570 660
70 540 620
60 520 600
50 490 570
40 470 550
30 450 520
20 450 490
10 450 450
Total N = 480,485

AP Chemistry

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥2 ≥3
90 1220 1380
80 1140 1300
70 1090 1250
60 1050 1200
50 1010 1160
40 970 1120
30 930 1080
20 870 1030
10 860 950
Total N = 221,688

AP Computer Science A

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥2 ≥3
90 1280 1390
80 1190 1300
70 1130 1230
60 1070 1180
50 1030 1130
40 980 1080
30 930 1020
20 870 960
10 860 860
Total N = 85,611

AP Computer Science Principles*

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥2 ≥3
90 1020 1210
80 930 1120
70 870 1060
60 860 1020
50 860 970
40 860 930
30 860 880
20 860 860
10 860 860
Total N = 102,407

AP English Language

Evidence-Based Reading and Writing Section Score
Probability (%) ≥2 ≥3
90 520 620
80 480 590
70 450 570
60 430 550
50 420 530
40 410 520
30 410 500
20 410 480
10 410 440
Total N = 823,584

AP English Literature

Evidence-Based Reading and Writing Section Score
Probability (%) ≥2 ≥3
90 560 670
80 520 640
70 500 620
60 480 600
50 460 590
40 440 570
30 420 550
20 410 530
10 410 500
Total N = 638,629

AP Environmental Science

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥2 ≥3
90 1140 1290
80 1080 1230
70 1030 1180
60 1000 1150
50 970 1110
40 940 1080
30 900 1040
20 860 1000
10 860 930
Total N = 240,839

AP European History

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥2 ≥3
90 1060 1290
80 970 1200
70 920 1140
60 880 1090
50 860 1050
40 860 1010
30 860 960
20 860 900
10 860 860
Total N = 97,535

AP Government & Politics: Comparative

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥2 ≥3
90 1160 1350
80 1080 1250
70 1030 1190
60 980 1140
50 940 1100
40 900 1050
30 860 1000
20 860 940
10 860 860
Total N = 36,346

AP Government & Politics: United States

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥2 ≥3
90 1150 1340
80 1080 1260
70 1040 1210
60 1000 1160
50 960 1120
40 930 1080
30 890 1030
20 860 980
10 860 900
Total N = 461,065

AP Human Geography

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥2 ≥3
90 1120 1230
80 1040 1150
70 990 1090
60 940 1050
50 900 1000
40 860 960
30 860 910
20 860 860
10 860 860
Total N = 76,080

AP Macroeconomics

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥2 ≥3
90 1270 1400
80 1190 1310
70 1130 1250
60 1080 1200
50 1040 1150
40 1000 1110
30 950 1060
20 900 1000
10 860 910
Total N = 237,142

AP Microeconomics

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥2 ≥3
90 1220 1350
80 1140 1260
70 1080 1200
60 1040 1150
50 990 1100
40 950 1060
30 910 1010
20 860 950
10 860 860
Total N = 134,359

AP Music Theory

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥2 ≥3
90 1120 1370
80 1010 1250
70 930 1170
60 870 1110
50 860 1050
40 860 990
30 860 920
20 860 860
10 860 860
Total N = 25,549

AP Physics 1*

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥2 ≥3
90 1250 1420
80 1180 1350
70 1130 1300
60 1090 1250
50 1050 1220
40 1010 1180
30 970 1140
20 920 1090
10 860 1010
Total N = 238,540

AP Physics C: Elec. & Mag.

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥2 ≥3
90 1320 1500
80 1220 1390
70 1150 1330
60 1090 1270
50 1040 1220
40 990 1170
30 930 1120
20 860 1050
10 860 950
Total N = 42,468

AP Physics C: Mechanics

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥2 ≥3
90 1240 1360
80 1160 1280
70 1110 1230
60 1060 1180
50 1020 1140
40 990 1100
30 940 1060
20 890 1000
10 860 920
Total N = 95,021

AP Psychology

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥2 ≥3
90 1120 1230
80 1050 1150
70 1000 1090
60 950 1050
50 920 1010
40 880 970
30 860 920
20 860 870
10 860 860
Total N = 426,236

AP Seminar

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥2 ≥3
90 860 1120
80 860 1020
70 860 960
60 860 900
50 860 860
40 860 860
30 860 860
20 860 860
10 860 860
Total N = 45,919

AP Statistics

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥2 ≥3
90 1210 1330
80 1140 1260
70 1090 1210
60 1050 1170
50 1020 1140
40 980 1100
30 950 1060
20 900 1010
10 860 940
Total N = 342,715

AP U.S. History

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥2 ≥3
90 1110 1260
80 1040 1190
70 1000 1140
60 960 1100
50 930 1060
40 890 1020
30 860 980
20 860 930
10 860 860
Total N = 640,108

AP World History: Modern

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥2 ≥3
90 1000 1200
80 930 1120
70 890 1070
60 860 1040
50 860 1000
40 860 960
30 860 920
20 860 880
10 860 860
Total N = 232,331

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