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AP Potential

Expectancy Tables

Select a subject below to see the specific PSAT/NMSQT cut scores that are associated with varying probabilities (or thresholds) of success on a given AP exam. The probabilities of success range from 10% to 90% and show the minimum scores associated with earning a 3 or higher or a 4 or higher for each probability level. The higher the probability level, the higher the PSAT/NMSQT score needed, and the more likely that the selected students will earn a 3 or higher or a 4 or higher.

Subject:

AP Art History

Reading + Writing & Language Test Scores
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 700 800
80 630 740
70 590 700
60 550 660
50 520 630
40 490 600
30 450 560
20 410 520
10 340 460
Total N = 36,698

AP Biology

Reading + Math Test Scores
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 1220 1420
80 1170 1360
70 1130 1320
60 1100 1290
50 1070 1260
40 1040 1230
30 1010 1190
20 970 1150
10 910 1090
Total N = 343,360

AP Calculus AB*

Math Test Score
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 700 780
80 660 730
70 620 700
60 600 670
50 570 640
40 550 620
30 520 590
20 490 560
10 440 510
Total N = 480,485

AP Chemistry

Reading + Math Test Scores
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 1380 1540
80 1300 1470
70 1250 1410
60 1200 1370
50 1160 1330
40 1120 1290
30 1080 1250
20 1030 1200
10 950 1120
Total N = 221,688

AP Computer Science

Reading + Math Test Scores
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 1390 1540
80 1300 1450
70 1230 1380
60 1180 1330
50 1130 1280
40 1080 1230
30 1020 1180
20 960 1110
10 860 1010
Total N = 85,611

AP Computer Science Principles*

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 1210 1460
80 1120 1370
70 1060 1310
60 1020 1260
50 970 1220
40 930 1170
30 880 1130
20 830 1070
10 740 980
Total N = 102,407
* The AP Computer Science Principles cut scores were calculated from 9th, 10th, and 11th grade PSAT and SAT scores taken during the 2015-2016 and 2016-2017 academic year that predicted the probability of scoring 3 or higher on AP Exams taken in 10th, 11th, and 12th grade the following academic year - either in spring 2017 or spring 2018. As there were two academic years of PSAT scores available but one year of SAT scores, SAT scores were double weighted in these calculations.

AP English Language

Reading + Writing & Language Test Scores
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 620 700
80 590 670
70 570 640
60 550 630
50 530 610
40 520 600
30 500 580
20 480 560
10 440 530
Total N = 823,584

AP English Literature

Reading + Writing & Language Test Scores
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 670 760
80 640 720
70 620 700
60 600 690
50 590 670
40 570 660
30 550 640
20 530 620
10 500 590
Total N = 638,629

AP Environmental Science

Reading + Math Test Scores
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 1290 1390
80 1230 1320
70 1180 1270
60 1150 1230
50 1110 1200
40 1080 1160
30 1040 1120
20 1000 1080
10 930 1010
Total N = 240,839

AP European History

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 1290 1470
80 1200 1370
70 1140 1310
60 1090 1260
50 1050 1220
40 1010 1170
30 960 1120
20 900 1060
10 820 960
Total N = 97,535

AP Government & Politics: Comparative

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 1350 1500
80 1250 1400
70 1190 1330
60 1140 1270
50 1100 1220
40 1050 1170
30 1000 1120
20 940 1050
10 850 950
Total N = 36,346

AP Government & Politics: United States

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 1340 1570
80 1260 1480
70 1210 1410
60 1160 1360
50 1120 1320
40 1080 1270
30 1030 1220
20 980 1150
10 900 1060
Total N = 461,065

AP Human Geography

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 1230 1390
80 1150 1300
70 1090 1240
60 1050 1190
50 1000 1140
40 960 1090
30 910 1040
20 860 980
10 770 890
Total N = 76,080

AP Macroeconomics

Reading + Math Test Scores
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 1400 1520
80 1310 1420
70 1250 1360
60 1200 1310
50 1150 1260
40 1110 1210
30 1060 1160
20 1000 1100
10 910 1010
Total N = 237,142

AP Microeconomics

Reading + Math Test Scores
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 1350 1480
80 1260 1390
70 1200 1320
60 1150 1270
50 1100 1230
40 1060 1180
30 1010 1130
20 950 1070
10 860 980
Total N = 134,359

AP Music Theory

Math + Writing & Language Test Scores
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 1370 1570
80 1250 1450
70 1170 1370
60 1110 1300
50 1050 1240
40 990 1180
30 920 1110
20 840 1030
10 720 910
Total N = 25,549

AP Physics 1*

Reading + Math Test Scores
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 1420 1550
80 1350 1480
70 1300 1430
60 1250 1390
50 1220 1350
40 1180 1310
30 1140 1270
20 1090 1220
10 1010 1140
Total N = 238,540

AP Physics C: Elec. & Mag.

Reading + Math Test Scores
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 1500 1580
80 1390 1480
70 1330 1420
60 1270 1360
50 1220 1310
40 1170 1260
30 1120 1210
20 1050 1140
10 950 1040
Total N = 42,468

AP Physics C: Mechanics

Reading + Math Test Scores
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 1360 1500
80 1280 1410
70 1230 1360
60 1180 1310
50 1140 1270
40 1100 1230
30 1060 1180
20 1000 1120
10 920 1040
Total N = 95,021

AP Psychology

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 1230 1360
80 1150 1270
70 1090 1210
60 1050 1160
50 1010 1120
40 970 1080
30 920 1030
20 870 970
10 790 880
Total N = 426,236

AP Statistics

Reading + Math Test Scores
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 1330 1470
80 1260 1400
70 1210 1350
60 1170 1320
50 1140 1280
40 1100 1250
30 1060 1210
20 1010 1160
10 940 1090
Total N = 342,715

AP U.S. History

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 1260 1420
80 1190 1340
70 1140 1290
60 1100 1240
50 1060 1200
40 1020 1160
30 980 1120
20 930 1070
10 860 990
Total N = 640,108

AP World History

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 1200 1370
80 1120 1290
70 1070 1240
60 1040 1200
50 1000 1160
40 960 1120
30 920 1080
20 880 1030
10 800 950
Total N = 232,331

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