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AP Potential

Expectancy Tables

Select a subject below to see the specific PSAT/NMSQT cut scores that are associated with varying probabilities (or thresholds) of success on a given AP exam. The probabilities of success range from 10% to 90% and show the minimum scores associated with earning a 3 or higher or a 4 or higher for each probability level. The higher the probability level, the higher the PSAT/NMSQT score needed, and the more likely that the selected students will earn a 3 or higher or a 4 or higher.

Subject:

AP Art History

Reading + Writing & Language Test Scores
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 72 76
80 67 75
70 63 72
60 60 69
50 57 67
40 53 64
30 49 61
20 45 56
10 38 50
Total N = 45,720

AP Biology

Reading + Math Test Scores
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 70.5 75.5
80 66.5 71.5
70 64 68.5
60 61.5 66.5
50 59.5 64.5
40 57.5 62.5
30 55 60
20 52 57
10 48.5 53
Total N = 319,963

AP Calculus AB*

Math Test Score
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 37.5 38
80 35 38
70 32.5 36
60 31.5 35
50 30 33
40 28.5 32
30 28 30.5
20 26 28.5
10 24 26.5
Total N = 590,333

AP Chemistry

Reading + Math Test Scores
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 72.5 76
80 68 73.5
70 65 71
60 62.5 68.5
50 60 66.5
40 57.5 64
30 55 61.5
20 51.5 58.5
10 47.5 53.5
Total N = 199,537

AP Computer Science

Reading + Math Test Scores
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 72.5 76
80 68 72.5
70 64.5 69
60 61.5 66.5
50 59 64
40 56.5 61.5
30 53.5 58.5
20 50.5 55
10 45.5 50.5
Total N = 33,299

AP Computer Science Principles*

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4

90

1230

1500

80

1140

1400

70

1080

1340

60

1030

1290

50

990

1240

40

940

1200

30

900

1150

20

840

1080

10

750

990

Total N = 82,334
* The AP Computer Science Principles cut scores were calculated from 9th, 10th, and 11th grade PSAT and SAT scores taken during the 2015-2016 and 2016-2017 academic year that predicted the probability of scoring 3 or higher on AP Exams taken in 10th, 11th, and 12th grade the following academic year - either in spring 2017 or spring 2018. As there were two academic years of PSAT scores available but one year of SAT scores, SAT scores were double weighted in these calculations.

AP English Language

Reading + Writing & Language Test Scores
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 61 70
80 58 67
70 56 65
60 55 64
50 53 62
40 51 60
30 50 58
20 48 56
10 44 53
Total N = 510,233

AP English Literature

Reading + Writing & Language Test Scores
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 68 75
80 65 73
70 62 71
60 60 69
50 58 68
40 57 66
30 55 64
20 52 62
10 48 58
Total N = 901,369

AP Environmental Science

Reading + Math Test Scores
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 68 73.5
80 64 69.5
70 61.5 67.5
60 59 65.5
50 57 63
40 55 61
30 53 59
20 50.5 56.5
10 47 52
Total N = 181,153

AP European History

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 1320 1520
80 1220 1450
70 1160 1400
60 1110 1350
50 1060 1300
40 1020 1250
30 960 1200
20 890 1120
10 800 1030
Total N = 121,749

AP Government & Politics: Comparative

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 1420 1520
80 1330 1470
70 1270 1410
60 1210 1350
50 1170 1310
40 1120 1260
30 1070 1210
20 1010 1140
10 910 1040
Total N = 39,126

AP Government & Politics: United States

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 1400 1520
80 1320 1480
70 1260 1430
60 1210 1380
50 1170 1340
40 1130 1300
30 1080 1250
20 1030 1190
10 930 1100
Total N = 505,103

AP Human Geography

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 1320 1470
80 1230 1390
70 1180 1330
60 1130 1290
50 1090 1240
40 1050 1200
30 1000 1140
20 940 1090
10 850 1000
Total N = 40,344

AP Macroeconomics

Reading + Math Test Scores
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 73 76
80 68.5 73.5
70 65.5 70.5
60 62.5 68
50 60 65.5
40 57 63
30 54.5 60
20 51 56.5
10 46 51
Total N = 210,735

AP Microeconomics

Reading + Math Test Scores
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 70 76
80 66 72.5
70 63 69
60 60 67
50 57.5 65
40 55.5 62.5
30 52.5 60
20 50 57
10 45 52
Total N = 125,943

AP Music Theory

Math + Writing & Language Test Scores
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 72.5 76
80 67 75.5
70 63 72
60 59.5 69
50 56.5 66
40 53 63
30 49.5 60
20 45 56
10 38 49
Total N = 31,404

AP Physics 1*

Reading + Math Test Scores
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 75 76
80 70.5 76
70 68 75.5
60 65.5 73
50 63.5 71.5
40 61 69
30 58.5 67
20 55.5 64
10 51 59.5
Total N = 291,987

AP Physics C: Elec. & Mag.

Reading + Math Test Scores
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 76 76
80 72.5 76
70 68.5 72.5
60 65.5 70
50 62.5 67.5
40 59.5 64.5
30 56.5 61
20 52.5 57
10 47 51
Total N = 40,572

AP Physics C: Mechanics

Reading + Math Test Scores
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 72.5 76
80 68.5 75
70 65.5 72.5
60 63 69.5
50 60.5 67.5
40 58 65.5
30 55.5 62.5
20 52.5 59.5
10 48 54.5
Total N = 89,669

AP Psychology

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 1270 1410
80 1180 1320
70 1120 1260
60 1080 1210
50 1030 1160
40 1000 1120
30 940 1070
20 890 1000
10 800 900
Total N = 337,894

AP Statistics

Reading + Math Test Scores
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 69 76
80 65.5 72.5
70 62.5 69.5
60 60.5 68
50 58 66
40 56 63.5
30 53.5 61.5
20 51 58.5
10 47 54.5
Total N = 308,268

AP U.S. History

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 1320 1460
80 1240 1380
70 1180 1330
60 1140 1290
50 1100 1240
40 1060 1200
30 1020 1150
20 950 1090
10 870 1010
Total N = 452,416

AP World History

Total Score
Probability (%) ≥3 ≥4
90 1300 1470
80 1210 1380
70 1160 1320
60 1110 1270
50 1070 1230
40 1020 1180
30 980 1130
20 910 1070
10 820 980
Total N = 93,941

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