# Expectancy Tables

Select a subject below to see the specific PSAT/NMSQT cut scores that are associated with varying probabilities (or thresholds) of success on a given AP exam. The probabilities of success range from 10% to 90% and show the minimum scores associated with earning a 3 or higher or a 4 or higher for each probability level. The higher the probability level, the higher the PSAT/NMSQT score needed, and the more likely that the selected students will earn a 3 or higher or a 4 or higher.

**Subject:**

## AP Art History |
||
---|---|---|

Reading + Writing & Language Test Scores | ||

Probability (%) | ≥3 | ≥4 |

90 | 72 | 76 |

80 | 67 | 75 |

70 | 63 | 72 |

60 | 60 | 69 |

50 | 57 | 67 |

40 | 53 | 64 |

30 | 49 | 61 |

20 | 45 | 56 |

10 | 38 | 50 |

Total N = 45,720 |

## AP Biology |
||
---|---|---|

Reading + Math Test Scores | ||

Probability (%) | ≥3 | ≥4 |

90 | 70.5 | 75.5 |

80 | 66.5 | 71.5 |

70 | 64 | 68.5 |

60 | 61.5 | 66.5 |

50 | 59.5 | 64.5 |

40 | 57.5 | 62.5 |

30 | 55 | 60 |

20 | 52 | 57 |

10 | 48.5 | 53 |

Total N = 319,963 |

## AP Calculus AB* |
||
---|---|---|

Math Test Score | ||

Probability (%) | ≥3 | ≥4 |

90 | 37.5 | 38 |

80 | 35 | 38 |

70 | 32.5 | 36 |

60 | 31.5 | 35 |

50 | 30 | 33 |

40 | 28.5 | 32 |

30 | 28 | 30.5 |

20 | 26 | 28.5 |

10 | 24 | 26.5 |

Total N = 590,333 | ||

* Although AP Potential is no longer reported for Calculus BC, students with AP Potential for Calculus AB who perform well in courses leading to Calculus may consider taking Calculus BC. When making final course placement decisions, it is important to consider factors such as prior coursework, student interest, and motivation. |

## AP Chemistry |
||
---|---|---|

Reading + Math Test Scores | ||

Probability (%) | ≥3 | ≥4 |

90 | 72.5 | 76 |

80 | 68 | 73.5 |

70 | 65 | 71 |

60 | 62.5 | 68.5 |

50 | 60 | 66.5 |

40 | 57.5 | 64 |

30 | 55 | 61.5 |

20 | 51.5 | 58.5 |

10 | 47.5 | 53.5 |

Total N = 199,537 |

## AP Computer Science |
||
---|---|---|

Reading + Math Test Scores | ||

Probability (%) | ≥3 | ≥4 |

90 | 72.5 | 76 |

80 | 68 | 72.5 |

70 | 64.5 | 69 |

60 | 61.5 | 66.5 |

50 | 59 | 64 |

40 | 56.5 | 61.5 |

30 | 53.5 | 58.5 |

20 | 50.5 | 55 |

10 | 45.5 | 50.5 |

Total N = 33,299 |

## AP Computer Science Principles* |
||
---|---|---|

Total Score | ||

Probability (%) | ≥3 | ≥4 |

90 |
1230 |
1500 |

80 |
1140 |
1400 |

70 |
1080 |
1340 |

60 |
1030 |
1290 |

50 |
990 |
1240 |

40 |
940 |
1200 |

30 |
900 |
1150 |

20 |
840 |
1080 |

10 |
750 |
990 |

Total N = 82,334 | ||

* The AP Computer Science Principles cut scores were calculated from 9th, 10th, and 11th grade PSAT and SAT scores taken during the 2015-2016 and 2016-2017 academic year that predicted the probability of scoring 3 or higher on AP Exams taken in 10th, 11th, and 12th grade the following academic year - either in spring 2017 or spring 2018. As there were two academic years of PSAT scores available but one year of SAT scores, SAT scores were double weighted in these calculations. |

## AP English Language |
||
---|---|---|

Reading + Writing & Language Test Scores | ||

Probability (%) | ≥3 | ≥4 |

90 | 61 | 70 |

80 | 58 | 67 |

70 | 56 | 65 |

60 | 55 | 64 |

50 | 53 | 62 |

40 | 51 | 60 |

30 | 50 | 58 |

20 | 48 | 56 |

10 | 44 | 53 |

Total N = 510,233 |

## AP English Literature |
||
---|---|---|

Reading + Writing & Language Test Scores | ||

Probability (%) | ≥3 | ≥4 |

90 | 68 | 75 |

80 | 65 | 73 |

70 | 62 | 71 |

60 | 60 | 69 |

50 | 58 | 68 |

40 | 57 | 66 |

30 | 55 | 64 |

20 | 52 | 62 |

10 | 48 | 58 |

Total N = 901,369 |

## AP Environmental Science |
||
---|---|---|

Reading + Math Test Scores | ||

Probability (%) | ≥3 | ≥4 |

90 | 68 | 73.5 |

80 | 64 | 69.5 |

70 | 61.5 | 67.5 |

60 | 59 | 65.5 |

50 | 57 | 63 |

40 | 55 | 61 |

30 | 53 | 59 |

20 | 50.5 | 56.5 |

10 | 47 | 52 |

Total N = 181,153 |

## AP European History |
||
---|---|---|

Total Score | ||

Probability (%) | ≥3 | ≥4 |

90 | 1320 | 1520 |

80 | 1220 | 1450 |

70 | 1160 | 1400 |

60 | 1110 | 1350 |

50 | 1060 | 1300 |

40 | 1020 | 1250 |

30 | 960 | 1200 |

20 | 890 | 1120 |

10 | 800 | 1030 |

Total N = 121,749 |

## AP Government & Politics: Comparative |
||
---|---|---|

Total Score | ||

Probability (%) | ≥3 | ≥4 |

90 | 1420 | 1520 |

80 | 1330 | 1470 |

70 | 1270 | 1410 |

60 | 1210 | 1350 |

50 | 1170 | 1310 |

40 | 1120 | 1260 |

30 | 1070 | 1210 |

20 | 1010 | 1140 |

10 | 910 | 1040 |

Total N = 39,126 |

## AP Government & Politics: United States |
||
---|---|---|

Total Score | ||

Probability (%) | ≥3 | ≥4 |

90 | 1400 | 1520 |

80 | 1320 | 1480 |

70 | 1260 | 1430 |

60 | 1210 | 1380 |

50 | 1170 | 1340 |

40 | 1130 | 1300 |

30 | 1080 | 1250 |

20 | 1030 | 1190 |

10 | 930 | 1100 |

Total N = 505,103 |

## AP Human Geography |
||
---|---|---|

Total Score | ||

Probability (%) | ≥3 | ≥4 |

90 | 1320 | 1470 |

80 | 1230 | 1390 |

70 | 1180 | 1330 |

60 | 1130 | 1290 |

50 | 1090 | 1240 |

40 | 1050 | 1200 |

30 | 1000 | 1140 |

20 | 940 | 1090 |

10 | 850 | 1000 |

Total N = 40,344 |

## AP Macroeconomics |
||
---|---|---|

Reading + Math Test Scores | ||

Probability (%) | ≥3 | ≥4 |

90 | 73 | 76 |

80 | 68.5 | 73.5 |

70 | 65.5 | 70.5 |

60 | 62.5 | 68 |

50 | 60 | 65.5 |

40 | 57 | 63 |

30 | 54.5 | 60 |

20 | 51 | 56.5 |

10 | 46 | 51 |

Total N = 210,735 |

## AP Microeconomics |
||
---|---|---|

Reading + Math Test Scores | ||

Probability (%) | ≥3 | ≥4 |

90 | 70 | 76 |

80 | 66 | 72.5 |

70 | 63 | 69 |

60 | 60 | 67 |

50 | 57.5 | 65 |

40 | 55.5 | 62.5 |

30 | 52.5 | 60 |

20 | 50 | 57 |

10 | 45 | 52 |

Total N = 125,943 |

## AP Music Theory |
||
---|---|---|

Math + Writing & Language Test Scores | ||

Probability (%) | ≥3 | ≥4 |

90 | 72.5 | 76 |

80 | 67 | 75.5 |

70 | 63 | 72 |

60 | 59.5 | 69 |

50 | 56.5 | 66 |

40 | 53 | 63 |

30 | 49.5 | 60 |

20 | 45 | 56 |

10 | 38 | 49 |

Total N = 31,404 |

## AP Physics 1* |
||
---|---|---|

Reading + Math Test Scores | ||

Probability (%) | ≥3 | ≥4 |

90 | 75 | 76 |

80 | 70.5 | 76 |

70 | 68 | 75.5 |

60 | 65.5 | 73 |

50 | 63.5 | 71.5 |

40 | 61 | 69 |

30 | 58.5 | 67 |

20 | 55.5 | 64 |

10 | 51 | 59.5 |

Total N = 291,987 | ||

* Although AP Potential is not reported for Physics 2, students with AP Potential for Physics 1 who perform well in recommended prerequisite courses for Physics 2 may consider taking Physics 2. When making final course placement decisions, it is important to consider factors such as prior coursework, student interest, and motivation. |

## AP Physics C: Elec. & Mag. |
||
---|---|---|

Reading + Math Test Scores | ||

Probability (%) | ≥3 | ≥4 |

90 | 76 | 76 |

80 | 72.5 | 76 |

70 | 68.5 | 72.5 |

60 | 65.5 | 70 |

50 | 62.5 | 67.5 |

40 | 59.5 | 64.5 |

30 | 56.5 | 61 |

20 | 52.5 | 57 |

10 | 47 | 51 |

Total N = 40,572 |

## AP Physics C: Mechanics |
||
---|---|---|

Reading + Math Test Scores | ||

Probability (%) | ≥3 | ≥4 |

90 | 72.5 | 76 |

80 | 68.5 | 75 |

70 | 65.5 | 72.5 |

60 | 63 | 69.5 |

50 | 60.5 | 67.5 |

40 | 58 | 65.5 |

30 | 55.5 | 62.5 |

20 | 52.5 | 59.5 |

10 | 48 | 54.5 |

Total N = 89,669 |

## AP Psychology |
||
---|---|---|

Total Score | ||

Probability (%) | ≥3 | ≥4 |

90 | 1270 | 1410 |

80 | 1180 | 1320 |

70 | 1120 | 1260 |

60 | 1080 | 1210 |

50 | 1030 | 1160 |

40 | 1000 | 1120 |

30 | 940 | 1070 |

20 | 890 | 1000 |

10 | 800 | 900 |

Total N = 337,894 |

## AP Statistics |
||
---|---|---|

Reading + Math Test Scores | ||

Probability (%) | ≥3 | ≥4 |

90 | 69 | 76 |

80 | 65.5 | 72.5 |

70 | 62.5 | 69.5 |

60 | 60.5 | 68 |

50 | 58 | 66 |

40 | 56 | 63.5 |

30 | 53.5 | 61.5 |

20 | 51 | 58.5 |

10 | 47 | 54.5 |

Total N = 308,268 |

## AP U.S. History |
||
---|---|---|

Total Score | ||

Probability (%) | ≥3 | ≥4 |

90 | 1320 | 1460 |

80 | 1240 | 1380 |

70 | 1180 | 1330 |

60 | 1140 | 1290 |

50 | 1100 | 1240 |

40 | 1060 | 1200 |

30 | 1020 | 1150 |

20 | 950 | 1090 |

10 | 870 | 1010 |

Total N = 452,416 |

## AP World History |
||
---|---|---|

Total Score | ||

Probability (%) | ≥3 | ≥4 |

90 | 1300 | 1470 |

80 | 1210 | 1380 |

70 | 1160 | 1320 |

60 | 1110 | 1270 |

50 | 1070 | 1230 |

40 | 1020 | 1180 |

30 | 980 | 1130 |

20 | 910 | 1070 |

10 | 820 | 980 |

Total N = 93,941 |